- ODM has emerged as the most popular political party in Kenya with support at 20 percent, beating the UDA at 16 percent, although both parties are down from their 2022 highs
- TIFA Research notes that undecided voters now form a larger group, leaving neither party with a stable base of support as voter loyalty continues to shift.
- At the same time, Jubilee shows a gradual return, and the integrated ODM-UDA government is said to encourage unity and increase legitimacy despite regional differences.
The results of a TIFA Research survey, released on Tuesday, December 23, place the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) as the most popular political party in Kenya.
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According to a survey conducted in November, the Orange party, which celebrated its 20th anniversary two months ago, is supported by 20 percent of the country, an increase from 13 percent reported in August this year.
Next is ODM UDAwhich has held 16 percent.
According to TIFA, both rates indicate a decline from the strong support they had previously, for example in the run-up to the 2022 election.
The researcher noted that “the support of the two ruling parties, ODM and UDA, has decreased significantly from the 2022 levels, while the number of Kenyans who are undecided or have no party preference has increased to become the largest part of the electorate.
Thus, no party governs on a stable or permanent basis, and voter loyalty remains volatile.”
Jubilee party led by Uhuru Kenyatta it has been rising in its popularity gradually.
In the 2022 election, the popularity of the party that once ruled had decreased to 5 percent, compared to 11 percent by November 2025.
DCP, headed by the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachaguahas also been declining in popularity, currently at 6 percent, a distant fourth behind Jubilee, Wiper at 4 percent, and DAP-K and Ford Kenya tied at less than 1 percent.
ODM and UDA are proud to be the most popular parties, which may explain why they are considering a merger.
However, despite the results of the study favoring them, there is no guarantee that their union will reflect the joint popularity seen on paper.
TIFA Research notes that ODM and UDA together represent approximately 44 percent of the adult population.
However, it turns out that the wider debate that continues within ODM following the death of Raila Odinga shows that part of ODM’s current support may not directly align with President William Ruto’s re-election campaign in 2027.
Despite the movements of individual parties, the integrated government formed by ODM and UDA continues to receive support from all over the country.
A significant increase in popularity has been reported in the areas of Nyanza and Western Kenya by 31 and 25 percent respectively.
Despite his weak position in the opposition strongholds of Lower Eastern and Mount Kenya, his support has shown significant growth since the previous TIFA survey, increasing by 15 and 11 percent in the two regions respectively.
Supporters of the inclusive government arrangement say it has strengthened national unity and helped reduce ethnic tensions.
They also mention his contribution in strengthening the legitimacy of the current administration, increasing stability, and encouraging the fair distribution of government resources.
At least 2,053 participants over the age of 18 from all 47 counties were involved in providing the results of the survey conducted between November 10 and 17.
The survey, conducted through face-to-face interviews in homes, had a margin of error of +/- 2.16 percent.
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