The just-concluded TIFA poll has revealed that only 20% of Kenyans strongly believe the 2027 General Election will be free and fair.
Another 21% are somewhat confident, while a significant 50% are not confident at all, believing the election will be rigged and lack credibility.
The findings also show that confidence in the upcoming election is influenced by political alignment, especially support or opposition to the Broad-Based Government (BBG).
Among Kenyans who support the BBG, only 38% believe that the elections will be free and fair.
Despite backing the current administration, 30% of BBG supporters still believe that the polls will not be credible.
On the other hand, only 13% of BBG opponents have confidence in the elections, while 59% of them believe the election will not be free and fair.
The variation in perception appears to be shaped by political expectations, with supporters of the ruling coalition expressing more faith in the electoral process, while opponents remain sceptical, possibly because President William Ruto, the leader of BBG, is expected to seek re-election.
“Regarding confidence about the integrity of the next election, half of all Kenyans are ‘not confident at all’ about it (50%), though such expectations are shaped considerably by alignment with the BBG. For instance, nearly three times as many BBG supporters are “very confident” that they will be free and fair as compared with BBG opponents (38% vs. 13%). Conversely, while just under one-third of BBG supporters are “not confident at all” about this (30%), nearly twice as many BBG opponents hold this negative view (59%), perhaps at least partly a reflection of the fact that the BBG is in power and that its leader (President Ruto) will be a candidate for a second term.” TIFA said in a statement.
Opposition leaders call for a credible election
This comes at a time when Kenyans are dissatisfied with President Ruto’s nomination of the IEBC chair and the commissioners, with many expressing zero confidence in the process.
The political class, particularly the opposition, has also voiced strong discontent with the composition of the IEBC team.
Notably, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua recently came out guns blazing, stating that if the polls are mismanaged by the IEBC, then the 2007 post-election violence will look like a Christmas party.
These remarks have since landed him in trouble, prompting the National Assembly to suspend all business and pass a motion to discuss the statement.
Gachagua further claimed that the nominated IEBC chair, who is set to be vetted by the National Assembly, is a close ally of Josphat Nanok, further expressing his disappointment with the selection.
Some opposition leaders have also stated that even if Ruto appoints his close allies and aides, Farouk Kibet or Oscar Sudi as the IEBC chair, it would not change the outcome; they believe 2027 is already lost for him and that he is destined to be a one-term president.
