- On Wednesday, November 19, Mizani Africa released its research on the upcoming by-election in Mbeere North
- According to the results of the survey, Leonard Wa Muthende and Newton one of them will win the seat
- The poll also showed which party, between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), is more popular in Mbeere North.
Embu – Political analysts have claimed that the Mbeere North by-election is an important political test for major parties in the county and Mount Kenya.
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Who is likely to win the Mbeere North by-election?
Mizani Africa research has shown that the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Leonard Wa Muthende will emerge victorious.
According to the poll, conducted between November 17 and 19 among 800 respondents, Wa Muthende has 44.6 percent of voters’ support, giving him a narrow lead over his rivals.
The candidate of the Democratic Party of Kenya (DP), Newton Karish, came second with 42.4 percent, in a race that Mizani Africa said was very close.
“A very close to normal race. The new preference numbers from Mbeere North indicate a very tight by-election fight, with Leonard Wa Muthende on 44.6% and Newton Karish on 42.4%. These figures are within the survey’s ±3% margin of error, proving beyond doubt that the race is very close to normal. Neither side leads statistically, and the small difference between them can easily be changed by voter turnout patterns, ward level changes, or a change in the pace of the campaign,” Mizani Africa said.
According to the results of the survey, the Mbeere North by-election is a two-horse race, as both leading candidates enjoy the same base of support.
The candidate of Chama Cha Kazi (CCK), Duncun Mbui, who came third has a popularity rate of 5.7%, while 7.3% of the respondents have not decided who they will vote for.
“This poll sets the by-election as a pure two-horse race, with both candidates enjoying almost the same bases of support and competitive structures. Duncun Mbui, with 5.7 percent, remains far behind the two leaders, leaving a real contest between Leonard and Newton. Meanwhile, undecided voters of 7.3 percent form a decisive group whose final choice will determine the winner,” the study showed.
Which is the most popular political party in North Mbeere?
In terms of party popularity, President William Ruto’s UDA remains popular at 38.9 percent, closely followed by the Democratic People’s Party (DCP) of Rigathi Gachaguawhich has 33.1 percent.
“The latest Mizani Africa party preference poll for Mbeere North shows the UDA leading with 38.9%, maintaining its position as the most favored party in the state. The DCP follows closely behind with 33.1%, marking a strong recovery from previous months. The DP stands at 14.1%, showing solid but moderate support, while the CCK registers 3.7%, showing little traction,” the research firm said.
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Mizani Africa said the results of the study show an increase in integration in the main parties as the preferences of the voters become more and more clear.
What did Kithure Kindiki say about the Mbeere North by-election?
In related news, the Deputy President Kithur Kindiki expressed confidence that the UDA would win the seat in a landslide, promising the opposition a “big fight” in the next by-election.
Kindiki accused the Opposition of giving fear to the residents of Mbeere North instead of focusing on their candidate’s agenda.
According to Kindiki, Gachagua was busy insulting elected officials in Embu county at the expense of selling Karish’s candidacy.
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