- For more than 20 years, ODM has controlled Nairobi politics, largely due to the influence of former Prime Minister, the late Raila Odinga.
- After his recent death, it is expected that the political dynamics will change significantly in the run-up to the 2027 General Election.
- TUKO.co.ke analyzes how some politicians who were relying on Raila’s influence may be affected
For two decades now, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party and by extension, the former Prime Minister Raila Odingahave been controlling most of Nairobi’s politics.
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Currently, many elected officials, from Members of the County Assembly (MCAs) to the governor, hold their positions thanks to ODM and Raila in one form or another.
With the death of the long-time ODM leader, political analysts say Nairobi politics will change dramatically — and that change will come with consequences.
According to Phillip Mwangale, a lawyer and political analyst, politicians who seem to rely heavily on Raila’s influence for the election and their political survival will be the ones who will be affected the most.
“Those who will contest on the ODM ticket will have to do more than they have ever done. Now they will have to organize themselves with their voters instead of waiting for support,” Mwangale told TUKO.co.ke in a special interview on Tuesday, November 4.
Will Sakaja be able to handle Nairobi politics without Raila?
According to the lawyer, the Governor Johnson he will be the first to be affected by Raila’s absence. He explains that Sakaja is still the governor of Nairobi due to the influence of the former Prime Minister.
With his death now, the analyst says it is only a matter of time before the MCAs revive their argument to remove him from power.
“Raila was able to convince the MCAs to postpone the motion to remove Sakaja, but now he will have to spend more money to convince them. No matter what he does, there is a high possibility that he will be removed before 2027,” Mwangale said.
Such a position is supported by Omulo Junior, the Director of Development and County Affairs of UDA Nairobi.
Omulo says that unless political dynamics change, it will be difficult for Sakaja to win a second term.
“Sakaja may find it difficult to maintain his position, especially if you have people like Babu Owino, George Aladwa, and Mike Sonko in the race. But we ask that things change depending on how ODM will handle the selection process and their collaboration with UDA,” he said.
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“If ODM is ready to support Sakaja, things can change,” he added.
Who will hold Nairobi politics without Raila?
Many have claimed that it is impossible to fill Raila’s position, but in terms of Nairobi politics, the UDA County Welfare Director believes that the Member of Parliament for Embakasi East, Babu Owino, can fill the gap left by the former ODM leader.
“Babu Owino can take the position that Raila had in Nairobi politics and carry influence from ODM. You cannot compare him with people like Aladwa who control a small area like Lang’ata. Babu Owino has the ability to motivate and influence the youth,” he said.
The MP has clearly stated that he aims to remove Sakaja from power in 2027.
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He recently met with ODM’s Acting Leader, Oburu Oginga, who assured him that he will not be prevented from getting the party’s ticket if he wins the election.
Lawyer Mwangale also believes that Babu Owino is a person to be watched closely in Nairobi politics towards the 2027 General Election.
“He (Babu Owino) continues to gain popularity. If Raila were alive in 2027, his chances of winning the governorship would be half to half if Raila decided to support someone else. But now he will have an easier way because he is already expanding his influence,” Mwangale told TUKO.co.ke.
Which Nairobi politicians can fall without Raila?
There are many “Raila orphans” in Nairobi who may have a hard time in 2027.
Currently, ODM has eight members of parliament in the city, and political analysts say some of them will face challenges, including Mathare Member of Parliament, Anthony Oluoch; Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North); Peter Orero (Kibra); and TJ Kajwang’ (Ruaraka).
“Politicians who were counting on Raila’s popularity will fall badly. People like TJ Kajwang’, Elachi and even the Women’s Representative Esther Passaris. There is a new generation of leaders emerging. Even the cooperation between UDA and ODM will not be able to save them,” said Omulo Junior. “It will be difficult for those who were riding in Raila’s shadow. There will be no clear favourites,” added Mwangale.
However, some ODM politicians with independent positions may continue to support these changes.
Can Edwin Sifuna win the Nairobi senatorship again in 2027?
About the position of Edwin Sifuna to return as a Senator, Omulo and Mwangale did not agree.
While the UDA official believes he can win again, Mwangale sees that he may be among the political victims of Raila’s death.
“Although he (Sifuna) has national fame, he is not a grassroots politician or a motivator. Nairobi needs people like Babu Owino and Aladwa to penetrate. He will have a hard time if he decides to run for senator in 2027,Mwangale added.
Source: Facebook
What are Ruto’s chances of being re-elected after Raila’s death?
Earlier, TUKO.co.ke reported that political analyst, Advice Mundalo, said that the positions of the President William Ruto re-election is still high despite Raila’s death.
While many believe Ruto will find it difficult to mobilize support for a second term, Mundalo had a different view.
He mentioned four reasons why the chances of the president remain high in the 2027 election.
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Source: TUKO.co.ke
