A recent Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) poll has on May 28, 2025, revealed that 28 per cent of Kenyans want former Prime Minister Raila Odinga to contest for the presidency in the 2027 general elections.
The survey, conducted between May 20 and 22, 2025, sampled 2, 024 respondents nationwide through telephone interviews. It gauged public opinion on leadership preferences, including the next presidential race.
Despite Raila’s recent declaration of interest in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, a sizeable portion of Kenyans still view him as a strong contender for the country’s highest office.
Ruto leads race with 35%, Raila secon
According to the poll, President William Ruto remains the front-runner with 35 per cent of Kenyans indicating they would vote for him in 2027. Raila follows closely at 28 per cent, maintaining a solid base of support. Other potential candidates like Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka polled 9 per cent, while Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi each garnered less than 5 per cent.
The poll also found that 12 per cent of respondents remain undecided about their preferred presidential candidate, suggesting that the race is still fluid and open to change.
The data shows Raila Odinga enjoys overwhelming support in the Nyanza region, where over 70 per cent of respondents said they would back him if he ran. He also retains significant backing in Nairobi and parts of the Coast, echoing patterns from previous elections.
This support comes even as Raila pursues the AUC chairmanship, a move endorsed by President Ruto’s administration a development that has stirred debate over Raila’s future in Kenyan politics.
Public opinion divided on Raila’s AUC ambitions
The TIFA poll also explored views on Raila’s bid for the African Union Commission chair. Half of Kenyans surveyed support his ambition to take on the continental role, while 31 per cent believe he should instead focus on local politics and contest the presidency in 2027. The remaining 19 per cent were undecided or had no opinion.
This division reflects a nation weighing the benefits of Raila’s continued influence on Kenya’s political scene against his potential role in regional leadership.
Youth voters hold key to 2027 outcome
The poll highlights that many young Kenyans under the age of 35 are undecided or open to new leadership options, signaling a potential generational shift. While Raila’s legacy continues to resonate with older voters, the youth demographic may shape the next political landscape as they increasingly assert their political voice.
As the 2027 elections approach, this TIFA poll underscores the ongoing contest between established political heavyweights and the emergence of new actors in Kenya’s evolving democracy.
