Half of Kenyans have no confidence in the integrity of the 2027 General Election, a new opinion poll by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) has revealed.
The poll, released on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, shows that 50 per cent of Kenyans doubt the credibility of the upcoming election. Only 20 per cent of the respondents said they had complete confidence in the process, while 21 per cent were somewhat confident.
“As of now, the issue of the perceived integrity of the country’s electoral processes remains a challenge, with half of all Kenyans (50%) expressing a complete lack of confidence in the integrity of the 2027 contests. By contrast, only one-fifth (20%) express complete confidence in their integrity, while a similar proportion (21%) are ‘somewhat confident’ about them,” TIFA noted.
According to TIFA, the main concerns raised by Kenyans include political interference, corruption, and lack of trust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). These three issues were seen as the biggest threats to a credible election in 2027.
Among those with no confidence in the election, 30 per cent cited political interference as their top concern, 29 per cent pointed to corruption, voter bribery and vote theft, while 23 per cent said they did not trust the IEBC.
Other issues mentioned include violence and insecurity at 7 per cent, fears that the president or other candidates may refuse to accept defeat at 2 per cent, technology failures at 2 per cent, a history of rigging at 1 per cent, and insufficient time to prepare for the elections at 1 per cent. Five per cent either did not give a clear reason or chose not to respond.
“Among the 50% of Kenyans who have no confidence in the next election’s integrity, the most commonly expressed concerns are about political interference, corruption, and failures of the IEBC (30%, 29% and 23%, respectively), but it is clear that these three categories are somewhat overlapping as they all related to the integrity of the official results. Political Interference 30% Corruption/Lack of Transparency/Vote Theft/Voter Bribery 29% Lack of Trust in the IEBC 23% 7% Violence/Insecurity Refusal of the Presiden/Other Candidates to Accept Defeat 2% Technology Failures 2% History of Rigging 1% 1% Insufficient Time to Prepare for 2027 No Clear Reason/NR 5%,” TIFA stated.
IEBC credibility
The poll also examined how Kenyans view the ongoing vetting process for IEBC commissioners. A majority, 55 per cent, said they do not believe the vetting has been based on merit. This, they said, raises serious questions about the legitimacy of the commission and those responsible for appointing its members.
“Overall, a majority (55%) of Kenyans are not confident that the vetting has been merit-based, revealing a serious legitimacy deficit for the Commission and the appointing authorities. The data clearly shows that public confidence in the IEBC vetting process is strongly influenced by how individuals perceive the credibility of past elections,” TIFA reported.
Adding;
“Those who believe previous elections were fair tend to trust the current process, while those who view past elections as flawed express deep scepticism.”
